Trump Administration Escalates Pressure on Cuba
President Trump has signed a new executive order declaring that the policies and actions of the Government of Cuba “constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat” to the national security of the United States. Issued on January 29, the presidential directive seeks to penalize any nation that ships petroleum to Cuba by authorizing new tariffs that “may be imposed on imports of goods that are products of a foreign country that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to Cuba.”
Titled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba,” the directive also accuses the island nation of hosting “dangerous adversaries” of the United States and aligning itself with Russia, China, and extremist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. “Contrary to the interests and foreign policy of the United States,” the executive order claims, “the Cuban communist regime supports terrorism and destabilizes the region through migration and violence.”
The effort to block all shipments of oil to Cuba follows the January 3rd U.S. military operations in Venezuela, which cut off Cuba from its largest oil supplier, valued at an estimated $1 billion a year, and comes amidst a flurry of statements from Trump administration officials that they are seeking regime change in Cuba. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. officials were developing plans to overthrow Cuba’s Communist government before the end of the year, using a blueprint similar to “Operation Absolute Resolve”—the successful U.S. effort that removed Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro from power.
With Venezuela’s oil industry now under the effective control of the United States, previous petroleum exports of about 35,000 barrels a day to Cuba have been terminated. The new executive order is widely perceived to be aimed at Mexico, which has supplied small but steady amounts of oil to Cuba as what Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum calls “a humanitarian gesture.”
A cutoff of all Mexican oil exports to Cuba would effectively leave Cuba with no access to energy needed to support its electrical grid. Oil industry analysts believe Cuba could run out of petroleum stocks by the end of this month, forcing a collapse of the economy which was already in dire straits.
In a conciliatory statement on February 1, the Cuban Foreign Ministry responded to President Trump’s executive order by condemning terrorism and categorically denying that Cuba harbored or supported extremist organizations or constituted a threat to U.S. security interests. The Foreign Ministry statement reiterated that Cuba was “prepared to resume and broad bilateral collaboration with the United States” referring to the counterterrorism, counternarcotics and other coordinated efforts during the Obama administration to address transnational threats. Cuba, the statement concluded, also “reiterates its willingness to sustain a respectful and reciprocal dialogue with the Government of the United States.”
Speaking to reporters at Mar-a-Lago that same day, President Trump indicated that the two nations were, in fact, engaged in some form of back-channel discussions. “Cuba is a failing nation. It has been for a long time but now it doesn’t have Venezuela to prop it up,” he stated. “So we’re talking to the people from Cuba, the highest people in Cuba, to see what happens,” the President revealed. “I think we’re going to make a deal with Cuba.”
